Source register

Every work the book cites · where to read it · what it found

Every research claim in the book comes from somewhere specific. This is where.

For each source: the full citation, a link to the publisher record, a link to the free full text where one exists, and the passages in the book that draw on it. Several of the studies carrying the most weight are free to read in their entirety, and those are marked.

If you want to go deeper than the book goes — into bootlegging and creative deviance, organisational attention, learning curves, transparency and monitoring, voice and silence, executive overconfidence — you can go straight to the work itself from here. Read the paper and decide what you make of it.

If your work appears here, I would be glad to hear from you. Get in touch.

21Free to read in full
51Works cited
146Passages in the book

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The complete paper is publicly available. The link goes to it. Start here if you want to read the research rather than a description of it.

Publisher record

Citation confirmed at the publisher. The abstract is open; the full text sits behind a paywall or a library.

Contested

Disputed in the literature, or failed to replicate. The book says so where it uses it, and the dispute is described here.

Not research

A trade book, press report or industry paper. Cited as a claim or an illustration, not as evidence, and flagged in the text on first use.

Reference listed

The citation as it stands in the research dossier. A publisher link has not been added here yet.

Bernstein (2012), transparency paradox

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Bernstein, E. S. (2012). The Transparency Paradox: A Role for Privacy in Organizational Learning and Operational Control. Administrative Science Quarterly 57(2): 181–216. DOI: 10.1177/0001839212453028

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Embedded participant-observers and a field experiment at the second-largest mobile phone factory in the world, in China. A modest increase in group-level privacy sustainably and significantly improved line performance; the qualitative evidence points to privacy supporting productive deviance, localized experimentation, distraction avoidance and continuous improvement. The whole paper is free to read, which matters here — it carries more of this book's argument than any other source.

Used in the book at 30 places
  • Chapter One The Choice, and the FleetIn 2012 a researcher named Ethan Bernstein published a study conducted inside the world's second-largest mobile phone factory.
  • Chapter One The Choice, and the FleetThen Bernstein did something almost comic in its simplicity.
  • Chapter Seven The Graveyard of Good ProgramsAnd the single most interesting intervention in this whole book, which we will come to properly in Chapter 10, is Bernstein's curtain — the one design that produced a measured, sustained improvement in a real factory, and it did that by giving managers less visibility rather than more.
  • Chapter Seven The Graveyard of Good ProgramsBernstein's curtain is the closest thing to an escape I know of, and it works precisely because it does the opposite of what a manager's instinct demands: it reduces what can be seen, on purpose, and then measures the line rather than the people.
  • Chapter Nine The Silence That FollowsBernstein's factory workers, from Chapter 1, were concealing better methods a few metres from suggestion boxes that stood empty.
  • Chapter Nine The Silence That FollowsThe dilemma, made rigorous — and why the curtain in Bernstein's factory matters more than anything else in this book.*]{.forward}
  • Chapter Ten The Revelation ThresholdIn 2012 Ethan Bernstein published a paper in Administrative Science Quarterly based on work inside the world's second-largest mobile phone factory.
  • Chapter Ten The Revelation ThresholdThen Bernstein hung a curtain.
  • Chapter Ten The Revelation ThresholdBernstein named the finding himself, and his name for it is the one this book will use.
  • Chapter Ten The Revelation ThresholdThat is Bernstein's operators, in an office, with a laptop, nine months in.
  • Chapter Ten The Revelation ThresholdThat is the second organising claim in this book, alongside the three-currency convergence from Chapter 5, and I will call it the observation principle, on the understanding that the name is a container for Bernstein's finding rather than a rival to it.
  • Chapter Ten The Revelation ThresholdA factory. Bernstein's lines, where privacy raised output and the effect held for months.
  • Chapter Ten The Revelation ThresholdWhat it buys is a specific and limited thing: if Bernstein's factory turned out tomorrow to be a fluke, the direction would still have three independent results behind it, and the argument would be wounded rather than dead.
  • Chapter Ten The Revelation ThresholdBernstein is one factory. It is a Chinese contract-manufacturing plant, on assembly lines, with a defined standard method that operators were deviating from — which is the cleanest possible setting for this finding and not obviously the same setting as a quality engineer with a laptop and no standard method to deviate from.
  • Chapter Ten The Revelation ThresholdHis prescription is narrower than my use of it. Bernstein argues for bounded privacy with four specific boundaries, not for reduced visibility as a general good, and executives have entirely legitimate reasons to see things — capital, risk, compliance, coordination.
  • Chapter Ten The Revelation ThresholdAnd the three-scale claim is mine. Bernstein established the person scale.
  • Chapter Ten The Revelation ThresholdIf the tools that were shown in month one are in the same state a year on as the tools that were shown in month nine, then the observation principle is wrong outside a production line, Bernstein's result does not travel, and this chapter is a nice story about a curtain.
  • Chapter Ten The Revelation ThresholdIt is also exactly what Bernstein got somebody to agree to in 2012, which is the other reason that study is worth more than everything else I have.
  • Chapter Eleven Stop Hunting the FleetBernstein's operators put the better method away when a manager came down the line; Maria opened the output instead of the tool within ninety seconds of a friendly colleague standing behind her chair; a form asking for expected benefit fixed the value of a nine-month tool at what it was worth in month zero; an audit converted a sanctuary into the gate it had been built as an alternative to.
  • Chapter Eleven Stop Hunting the FleetIf the monitoring literature did not exist, the prediction would still follow from Bernstein plus the argument of the last chapter, and it would still be worth acting on.
  • Chapter Eleven Stop Hunting the FleetThat is the same shape as Bernstein's line and the same shape as Maria in the canteen, arrived at twenty-two years earlier, in a laboratory, with no factory anywhere in sight.
  • Chapter Eleven Stop Hunting the FleetWhich is Bernstein again, from a different direction, and it is worth saying flatly because the popular version of his finding gets it wrong in a way that makes this chapter sound like something it is not.
  • Chapter Eleven Stop Hunting the FleetBernstein did not stop looking; the output was still measured and the line was still accountable for what it produced, and if that had not been true his finding would be worthless.
  • Chapter Eleven Stop Hunting the FleetIt is the same step Bernstein's factory lets me make at the person scale, from the other direction, which is why I am willing to make it.
  • Chapter Twelve The Dual Operating System## Bernstein's four boundaries, made operable
  • Chapter Twelve The Dual Operating SystemThis is the part somebody can act on, and I take it from the same paper that carries the strongest evidence in this book, because Bernstein did not stop at the curtain.
  • Chapter Twelve The Dual Operating SystemApplied here, the immediate consequence is about the report from Chapter 11: a discovery tool that produces a row per named employee is doing the thing Bernstein's factory stopped doing, and one that reports at the level of a function or a site answers the governance question without producing a list of names.
  • Chapter Twelve The Dual Operating SystemEverything in Parts II and III rests on documented mechanisms — capital lumpiness, attention as a zero-sum resource, promotion for visible events, programme decay, the voice and silence literature, and Bernstein's controlled result.
  • Chapter Twelve The Dual Operating SystemThe four boundaries were designed for an assembly line. Bernstein set them out for zones on a production floor in a Chinese contract manufacturer, with a defined standard method and operators deviating from it.
  • Conclusion What To Do About ItObservation degrades performance on a production line, which is Bernstein's controlled result with a curtain in it.

Criscuolo, Salter & Ter Wal (2014), bootlegging

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Criscuolo, P., Salter, A. & Ter Wal, A. L. J. (2014). Going Underground: Bootlegging and Individual Innovative Performance. Organization Science 25(5): 1287–1305. DOI: 10.1287/orsc.2013.0856

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The quantitative study of bootlegging inside a large R&D organisation, at individual level. Bootleg effort is associated with high individual innovative performance, and the authors assess the direction of causality before saying so. The two mechanisms the book uses are theirs: exploration of uncharted territory, and delayed assessment of embryonic ideas. The contingency the book returns to in Part II is also theirs — costs and benefits depend on how heavily organisational norms are enforced.

Used in the book at 8 places
  • Chapter One The Choice, and the FleetThe most rigorous study we have is by Paola Criscuolo, Ammon Salter and Anne ter Wal, published in Organization Science in 2014.
  • Chapter One The Choice, and the FleetThere is also a sting in the Criscuolo findings that we will come back to in Part II.
  • Chapter One The Choice, and the FleetCriscuolo, Salter and ter Wal is the rigorous one, quantitative and at the individual level, and it is one organisation.
  • Chapter Seven The Graveyard of Good ProgramsCriscuolo, Salter and Ter Wal found that bootleg efforts were associated with higher individual innovative performance, and the mechanism was delayed assessment — the hidden project gets to become what it is going to be before anybody judges it.
  • Chapter Ten The Revelation ThresholdCriscuolo, Salter and Ter Wal found that hidden projects came out better, and the mechanism was time — the embryo gets to become what it is going to be before anyone judges it.
  • Chapter Ten The Revelation ThresholdCriscuolo and colleagues supply the programme scale indirectly, in the finding that the same bootlegging behaviour associated with less innovation during periods of process formalisation — same behaviour, observed surroundings, inverted result — which is suggestive and is not the same as having been tested as a mechanism.
  • Chapter Twelve The Dual Operating SystemCriscuolo and colleagues found that bootleg effort raises innovative performance, and their explanation was delayed assessment — not avoided assessment, delayed.
  • Chapter Thirteen Does AI Break the Pattern?The entire justification for the submarine, from Criscuolo onward, is delayed assessment — the embryo gets to become what it is going to be before anybody judges it, and there is no path from the first version to the approvable version that runs through a meeting.

Waters-Lynch, Allen, Potts & Berg (2025), shadow user innovation

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Waters-Lynch, J., Allen, D. W. E., Potts, J. & Berg, C. (2025). Shadow user innovation: governing covert generative-AI use for dynamic-capability renewal. Innovation, 1–17. DOI: 10.1080/14479338.2025.2519546

ProofPublisher record·Full text, free (open access)·Earlier working-paper version (SSRN)

A theory paper, and the book says so where it uses it. The authors name covert workplace use of consumer generative AI shadow user innovation, placing it at the junction of internal user innovation and shadow IT. They model two triggers — acute work-process pain and strong concealability — and a revelation threshold at which expected gain from disclosing exceeds expected sanction risk. They argue covert artefacts create a learning blind spot that stalls sensing, seizing and reconfiguring, and set out a four-way governance matrix: repressive, permissive, integrative, structural. It derives testable propositions; it does not report a test. Received October 2024, accepted June 2025, published open access.

Used in the book at 5 places
  • Chapter Three Why NowWhen Waters-Lynch and colleagues studied hidden generative-AI use inside firms, they identified concealability as a condition shaping whether hidden work happens at all, meaning how easily the activity can be kept out of sight.
  • Chapter Ten The Revelation ThresholdIn 2025 Julian Waters-Lynch, Darcy Allen, Jason Potts and Chris Berg published a paper on what they call shadow user innovation — covert use of consumer AI tools inside firms, positioned deliberately at the junction of the user-innovation literature, the shadow-IT literature, and the bootlegging work this book opened with.
  • Chapter Ten The Revelation ThresholdWaters-Lynch and colleagues wrote it down properly: disclose when the expected gain beats the sanction risk, otherwise stay under.
  • Chapter Ten The Revelation ThresholdThe revelation threshold is a model, not a measurement. The Waters-Lynch paper is a theory piece.
  • Chapter Eleven Stop Hunting the FleetWaters-Lynch and colleagues put two triggers on the front of their model: covert use begins where there is acute pain in a work process and where the fix is concealable.

Tyre & von Hippel (1997), situated adaptive learning

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Tyre, M. J. & von Hippel, E. (1997). The Situated Nature of Adaptive Learning in Organizations. Organization Science 8(1): 71–83. DOI: 10.1287/orsc.8.1.71

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Problem-solving around new production equipment during early factory use. Adaptation turns out to be a situated process: different organisational settings contain different kinds of clues about the underlying issue, offer different resources for generating and analysing information, and evoke different assumptions in the people solving the problem. As a result, problem-solvers must move back and forth between settings before they can identify what is actually causing a fault. The authors argue this adds a dimension to a literature that had focused almost entirely on social knowledge exchange. A companion paper covers the same terrain from another angle: von Hippel, E. & Tyre, M. J. (1995), 'How learning by doing is done: problem identification in novel process equipment', Research Policy 24(1): 1–12. The book states plainly that this is a case study in a small number of plants, and that the authors were studying equipment start-up rather than governance.

Used in the book at 5 places
  • Chapter Six The Increment That PaysIn 1997 Marcie Tyre and Eric von Hippel published a study in Organization Science of what actually happens when new production equipment is introduced into a factory — the messy early period when the machine is installed and nothing quite works.
  • Chapter Six The Increment That PaysTyre and von Hippel were studying equipment start-up, not governance.
  • Chapter Six The Increment That PaysThe empirical base for the situated and tacit parts is two case studies. Tyre and von Hippel studied equipment start-up in a small number of plants.
  • Chapter Eight Promoted for the Big BetTyre and von Hippel showed in Chapter 6 that this kind of improvement is situated — it emerges where the problem is, from people who have the clues in front of them.
  • Chapter Ten The Revelation ThresholdTyre and von Hippel and the NUMMI study are the two bricks that sit on an actual assembly line, and they are case studies.

Edmondson (1999), psychological safety

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Edmondson, A. C. (1999). Psychological Safety and Learning Behavior in Work Teams. Administrative Science Quarterly 44(2): 350–383. DOI: 10.2307/2666999

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Introduces team psychological safety — a shared belief held by members of a team that the team is safe for interpersonal risk taking — and tests it in a multimethod field study of 51 work teams in a manufacturing company. Team psychological safety is associated with learning behaviour; team efficacy is not, once psychological safety is controlled for. Learning behaviour mediates between psychological safety and team performance. The manufacturing setting is worth noting given this book's proof case: the founding psychological-safety study was run on a factory, not in a lab. Won the Academy of Management's Outstanding Publication in Organizational Behavior award for 2000.

Used in the book at 5 places
  • Chapter Nine The Silence That FollowsAmy Edmondson's work on psychological safety is the canonical treatment.
  • Chapter Nine The Silence That FollowsBuilding it is hard, and Edmondson has spent a career on how, but the mechanism is understood and the industry has absorbed it.
  • Chapter Nine The Silence That FollowsAnd Detert and Edmondson explain how the lesson persists without ever being re-taught.
  • Chapter Nine The Silence That FollowsDetert and Edmondson showed the self-editing runs before the conversation starts.
  • Chapter Twelve The Dual Operating SystemEdmondson's own framing is the one to keep: it is the engine, not the fuel.

Chatterjee & Hambrick (2007), narcissistic CEOs

Publisher record

Chatterjee, A. & Hambrick, D. C. (2007). It's All About Me: Narcissistic Chief Executive Officers and Their Effects on Company Strategy and Performance. Administrative Science Quarterly 52(3): 351–386. DOI: 10.2189/asqu.52.3.351

ProofPublisher record·Penn State repository record

An empirical study of 111 CEOs in the computer hardware and software industries between 1992 and 2004, using four unobtrusive measures of narcissism: prominence of the CEO's photograph in the annual report, prominence in company press releases, use of first-person singular pronouns in interviews, and pay relative to the second-highest-paid executive. Narcissism was positively related to strategic dynamism and grandiosity and to the number and size of acquisitions, and produced extreme and fluctuating performance — big wins and big losses — while leaving firm performance on average no better and no worse than under non-narcissistic CEOs. The book states the four measures and that average result correctly, and uses the average result to remove the villain framing rather than to support it. It also flags the two obvious limits itself: the evidence concerns chief executives of large listed firms rather than plants, and the measures are ingenious stand-ins.

Used in the book at 5 places
  • Chapter Eight Promoted for the Big BetArijit Chatterjee and Hambrick ran the personality version directly in 2007, in a study that gets quoted more for its cleverness than for its result.
  • Chapter Eight Promoted for the Big BetChatterjee and Hambrick's average result points the same way.
  • Chapter Eight Promoted for the Big BetAlmost all of this evidence is about chief executives, and this chapter is about a plant. Jensen, Malmendier and Tate, Roll, Hayward and Hambrick, Chatterjee and Hambrick — every one of them studies the very top of very large listed companies, mostly through acquisitions, in samples weighted toward finance and technology.
  • Chapter Eight Promoted for the Big BetMalmendier and Chatterjee are finance and strategy researchers measuring what senior executives do.
  • Chapter Eight Promoted for the Big BetSeparately, the clues Chatterjee and Hambrick used — photograph size, counting the word "I", pay ratios — are ingenious and they are still stand-ins, and it is fair to ask whether a large photograph in an annual report measures a person or measures the house style of a communications department in a particular decade.

March (1991), exploration and exploitation

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March, J. G. (1991). Exploration and Exploitation in Organizational Learning. Organization Science 2(1): 71–87. DOI: 10.1287/orsc.2.1.71

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Considers the relation between the exploration of new possibilities and the exploitation of old certainties, and the complications in allocating resources between them — particularly those created by the distribution of costs and benefits across time and space, and by ecological interaction. Two situations are modelled: mutual learning between organisation members and an organisational code, and learning and competitive advantage in competition for primacy. The central argument is the one the book relies on: adaptive processes, by refining exploitation more rapidly than exploration, tend to become effective in the short run and self-destructive in the long run. Note that this is a simulation paper, not a field study — the mechanism is modelled, and that is worth knowing before leaning on it as evidence.

Used in the book at 5 places
  • Chapter Three Why NowHe was thirty-one and he had been in the building since March.
  • Chapter Seven The Graveyard of Good ProgramsCyert and March called it organisational slack in 1963: resources beyond what current operations strictly require.
  • Chapter Nine The Silence That Follows"Went to the March council and was funded" is, and so is "I meant to look at it."
  • Chapter Eleven Stop Hunting the FleetThree were in his own function, one of whom he had recommended for a development programme in March.
  • Chapter Twelve The Dual Operating SystemThree of the sixty-one names sat in his own function, and one of them belonged to a process engineer he had put forward for a development programme in March — a nomination he had written himself, three paragraphs, and he could remember using the word initiative in the second one because he had thought at the time that it was a slightly lazy word and had left it in anyway.

Brown, Lawrence & Robinson (2005), territoriality

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Brown, G., Lawrence, T. B. & Robinson, S. L. (2005). Territoriality in Organizations. Academy of Management Review 30(3): 577–594. DOI: 10.5465/amr.2005.17293710

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The paper that established territoriality as an organisational construct. Members become territorial not only over physical space but over ideas, roles and relationships — the extension to ideas is what makes it usable here. Territoriality is defined as an individual's behavioural expression of feelings of ownership toward a physical or social object, with psychological ownership as the antecedent. The behaviours divide into marking (identity-oriented and control-oriented) and defending (anticipatory and reactionary). The authors discuss consequences for organisational commitment, conflict, preoccupation and individual isolation — noting that territoriality has positive consequences for commitment as well as negative ones, which is worth preserving rather than flattening. A candid retrospective by the lead author is worth knowing about: Brown, G. (2024), 'Reflections on a (Failed) Launch: Revisiting and Reflecting on Territoriality in Organizations', Journal of Management Inquiry, DOI 10.1177/10564926241261915.

Used in the book at 4 places
  • Chapter Four The GateThen, in 2005, Graham Brown, Thomas Lawrence and Sandra Robinson published a paper in the Academy of Management Review that gave it a spine.
  • Chapter Four The GateBrown and Robinson followed this up in 2011 in Organization Science, looking directly at how people react to territorial infringement, and the reaction is what you would expect from the word.
  • Chapter Four The GateIn 2015 Graham Brown and Markus Baer published work in the Journal of Applied Psychology with a title that could serve as a subtitle for this whole chapter, "Protecting the Turf: The Effect of Territorial Marking on Others' Creativity." They showed experimentally that when people mark their territory it measurably suppresses the creativity of everyone else around it.
  • Chapter Ten The Revelation ThresholdA workgroup. Brown and Baer's territorial marking, from Chapter 4, where the act of one party staking a claim measurably suppressed the creativity of everyone else in the room.

Amabile, Goldfarb & Brackfield (1990), surveillance and creativity

Publisher record

Amabile, T. M., Goldfarb, P. & Brackfield, S. C. (1990). Social influences on creativity: Evaluation, coaction, and surveillance. Creativity Research Journal 3(1): 6–21. DOI: 10.1080/10400419009534330

ProofPublisher record·HBS record

Two experiments crossing evaluation expectation with the presence of others. In the first, presence was operationalised as coaction; in the second, as surveillance, with half the subjects believing they were being watched. Creativity ratings were made by expert judges. The effects of evaluation expectation were consistently strong, on a verbal task in Study 1 and an artistic task in Study 2. Coaction had no effect. Surveillance had a weak negative effect, and there was some evidence that the surveillance effect operated through experienced evaluation rather than observation itself.

Used in the book at 4 places
  • Chapter Ten The Revelation ThresholdA laboratory. Amabile's 1990 crossing of observation and evaluation, twenty-two years earlier, where the expectation of judgement — not the watching — reduced the creativity of what people produced.
  • Chapter Eleven Stop Hunting the FleetTeresa Amabile and colleagues crossed two variables people usually run together: being watched, and expecting to be judged.
  • Chapter Eleven Stop Hunting the FleetAnd the other half is a laboratory. The affirmative claim — that expecting evaluation degrades discretionary work — rests on Amabile, and Amabile ran short tasks with student participants rather than a nine-month side project in a plant.
  • Conclusion What To Do About ItExpecting to be evaluated degrades creative work, which Amabile established in a laboratory in 1990.

Nonaka, knowledge creation

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Nonaka, I. (1994). A Dynamic Theory of Organizational Knowledge Creation. Organization Science 5(1): 14–37. DOI: 10.1287/orsc.5.1.14 — with Nonaka, I. & Takeuchi, H. (1995), The Knowledge-Creating Company, Oxford University Press

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The source of the tacit/explicit distinction the book relies on. Organisational knowledge is created through continuous conversion between tacit and explicit knowledge — the SECI model — with the argument that firms are not passive users of existing knowledge, and that organisation and environment shape knowledge creation together. Written at the Institute of Business Research, Hitotsubashi University. The point the book takes from it is that tacit knowledge resists codification, which is why work that lives in someone's hands does not travel through a reporting system. Earlier related pieces worth knowing: Nonaka (1990), 'Redundant, overlapping organization', California Management Review; and Nonaka (1991), 'The knowledge-creating company', Harvard Business Review 69(6): 96–104 — the latter is an HBR article rather than a research paper and should not be cited as evidence.

Used in the book at 3 places
  • Chapter Six The Increment That PaysIkujiro Nonaka's 1994 account of organisational knowledge creation rests on a distinction between knowledge that has been made explicit — written, codified, transferable — and knowledge that remains tacit, held in a person, expressed in how they work rather than in any artefact.
  • Chapter Nine The Silence That FollowsNonaka's work on organisational knowledge creation supplies the vocabulary.
  • Chapter Twelve The Dual Operating SystemDocumentation, because Chapter 9's Nonaka argument says knowledge that stays in one head cannot be built on.

Bouquet & Birkinshaw (2008), weight versus voice

Publisher record

Bouquet, C. & Birkinshaw, J. (2008). Weight Versus Voice: How Foreign Subsidiaries Gain Attention From Corporate Headquarters. Academy of Management Journal 51(3): 577–601. DOI: 10.5465/amj.2008.32626039

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Questionnaire and archival data on 283 subsidiaries of multinational enterprises. Three findings. Attention decisions are partly based on the structural position a subsidiary occupies in the corporate system — its weight. A subsidiary also has a voice of its own that it can use to attract attention, through initiative-taking and profile-building. And the relationship between voice and headquarters attention is moderated by two features of the subsidiary's situation: geographic distance and downstream competence. A related paper by the same authors extends the picture: Bouquet & Birkinshaw (2009), 'The dynamics of attention markets in multinational enterprises'.

Used in the book at 3 places
  • Chapter One The Choice, and the FleetCyril Bouquet and Julian Birkinshaw studied 283 subsidiaries of multinational companies to find out how units capture the attention of headquarters, and their answer had two parts.
  • Chapter Five The Big FactoryChapter 1 set out the mechanics: Ocasio's finding that a firm's behaviour is governed by how it allocates the attention of its decision-makers, and Bouquet and Birkinshaw's two routes to being noticed — weight, which is structural, and voice, which is effortful and can be spent.
  • Chapter Thirteen Does AI Break the Pattern?And the third currency gets worse rather than better. Attention is zero-sum, which is the property that makes Bouquet and Birkinshaw's finding bite, and cheap building increases the number of things competing for a fixed pool.

Arrow (1962), learning by doing

Publisher record

Arrow, K. J. (1962). The Economic Implications of Learning by Doing. The Review of Economic Studies 29(3): 155–173. DOI: 10.2307/2295952 — related: Arrow, K. J. (1962), Economic Welfare and the Allocation of Resources for Invention, in The Rate and Direction of Inventive Activity, Princeton University Press, 609–626

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The theoretical counterpart to Wright's empirical regularity: Arrow's account of learning by doing treats experience accumulated through production as a source of productivity growth that cannot be bought or accelerated, only accrued. The book's use is precise about what it is doing — Arrow supplies the theory for the pattern Wright observed, and the book states plainly that neither Wright nor Arrow wrote about approval processes, so the extension to organisational gatekeeping is the author's own bridge and is labelled as such. That labelling matters and should be preserved in any edit.

Used in the book at 3 places
  • Chapter Six The Increment That PaysKenneth Arrow gave it theory in 1962, in a paper about learning by doing.
  • Chapter Six The Increment That PaysIt is worth thinking hard about, because it is Arrow's argument arriving from the opposite direction — an operator explaining a competitive moat rather than an economist explaining productivity growth, both landing on the same conclusion, which is that experience is an input you cannot buy and cannot rush.
  • Chapter Six The Increment That PaysWright and Arrow did not write about approval processes.

Malmendier & Tate, CEO overconfidence

Publisher record

Malmendier, U. & Tate, G. (2005). CEO Overconfidence and Corporate Investment. Journal of Finance 60(6): 2661–2700. DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.2005.00813.x — and Malmendier, U. & Tate, G. (2008). Who makes acquisitions? CEO overconfidence and the market's reaction. Journal of Financial Economics 89(1): 20–43. DOI: 10.1016/j.jfineco.2007.07.002

ProofPublisher record (2005)·Publisher record (2008)·Author's page (Berkeley)

The 2005 paper studies managerial overconfidence and corporate investment in a sample of 477 large publicly traded Forbes 500 companies over 1980–1994, building three measures of overconfidence from CEOs' own decisions about their personal option and share portfolios (Holder 67, Longholder, Net Buyer). The 2008 paper finds the odds of making an acquisition are 65 per cent higher for a CEO classified as overconfident, with the effect largest where the merger is diversifying and does not require external financing, and a market reaction at announcement significantly more negative.

Used in the book at 3 places
  • Chapter Eight Promoted for the Big BetUlrike Malmendier and Geoffrey Tate then measured it.
  • Chapter Eight Promoted for the Big BetAlmost all of this evidence is about chief executives, and this chapter is about a plant. Jensen, Malmendier and Tate, Roll, Hayward and Hambrick, Chatterjee and Hambrick — every one of them studies the very top of very large listed companies, mostly through acquisitions, in samples weighted toward finance and technology.
  • Chapter Eight Promoted for the Big BetMalmendier and Chatterjee are finance and strategy researchers measuring what senior executives do.

Morrison & Milliken (2000), organisational silence

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Morrison, E. W. & Milliken, F. J. (2000). Organizational Silence: A Barrier to Change and Development in a Pluralistic World. Academy of Management Review 25(4): 706–725. DOI: 10.5465/amr.2000.3707697 — with Milliken, F. J., Morrison, E. W. & Hewlin, P. F. (2003), An exploratory study of employee silence: Issues that employees don't communicate upward and why, Journal of Management Studies 40(6): 1453–1476, DOI: 10.1111/1467-6486.00387

ProofPublisher record (2000)·Full text, free (author copy, PDF)·Publisher record (2003)

The paper that named the concept. The authors argue that powerful forces in many organisations cause widespread withholding of information about potential problems or issues by employees, and call this collective-level phenomenon organizational silence. Their model identifies contextual variables that create conditions conducive to silence, and traces the collective sensemaking dynamics through which a shared perception forms that speaking up is unwise. The collective framing is what the book uses: silence as a property of the setting rather than of the individual. The 2003 Milliken, Morrison and Hewlin paper is the empirical companion on what employees do not say upward, and why.

Used in the book at 3 places
  • Chapter Nine The Silence That FollowsElizabeth Morrison and Frances Milliken's 2000 paper in the Academy of Management Review is the foundational statement.
  • Chapter Nine The Silence That FollowsThree years later Milliken, Morrison and Hewlin interviewed employees about why they stayed quiet.
  • Chapter Nine The Silence That FollowsMorrison and Milliken established that silence is produced rather than absent.

Ocasio (1997), attention-based view

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Ocasio, W. (1997). Towards an Attention-Based View of the Firm. Strategic Management Journal 18(S1): 187–206. DOI: 10.1002/(SICI)1097-0266(199707)18:1+<187::AID-SMJ936>3.0.CO;2-K

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The theoretical anchor for the attention currency. The central argument is that firm behaviour results from how firms channel and distribute the attention of their decision-makers: what decision-makers do depends on which issues and answers they focus on, and what they focus on depends on the situation and on how the firm's rules, resources and relationships distribute issues, answers and decision-makers into particular communications and procedures. That last clause is the one the book relies on — attention is allocated by structure, not by merit, so a good small idea can be structurally invisible. Ocasio developed the view further in 'Attention to attention', Organization Science 22(5): 1286–1296 (2011).

Used in the book at 2 places
  • Chapter One The Choice, and the FleetWilliam Ocasio made this the centre of one of the most cited arguments in strategic management: firms behave the way they do because of how they channel and distribute the attention of their decision-makers.
  • Chapter Five The Big FactoryChapter 1 set out the mechanics: Ocasio's finding that a firm's behaviour is governed by how it allocates the attention of its decision-makers, and Bouquet and Birkinshaw's two routes to being noticed — weight, which is structural, and voice, which is effortful and can be spent.

Wright (1936), the learning curve

Full text free

Wright, T. P. (1936). Factors Affecting the Cost of Airplanes. Journal of the Aeronautical Sciences 3(4): 122–128. DOI: 10.2514/8.155

ProofPublisher record·Full text, free (University of Vermont PDF)

The origin of the learning curve. Wright, then at Curtiss-Wright Corporation, analysed how the cost of building aircraft fell as cumulative quantity rose, and reported that direct labour required per airframe declined by roughly 20 per cent with each doubling of cumulative output — the classic 80 per cent curve. The regularity has been reproduced across a very wide range of technologies since and is now often called Wright's Law. The book states the finding without attaching a percentage, which is the safer choice: the 20 per cent figure is real and traceable to this paper, but the curve varies by industry, commonly cited in the 60–95 per cent range, so a single number would mislead. Available in full at no cost.

Used in the book at 2 places
  • Chapter Six The Increment That PaysWright published an analysis of costs in aircraft manufacturing and reported a regularity that has been reproduced ever since.
  • Chapter Six The Increment That PaysWright and Arrow did not write about approval processes.

Adler, Goldoftas & Levine (1999), NUMMI changeovers

Full text free

Adler, P. S., Goldoftas, B. & Levine, D. I. (1999). Flexibility Versus Efficiency? A Case Study of Model Changeovers in the Toyota Production System. Organization Science 10(1): 43–68. DOI: 10.1287/orsc.10.1.43

ProofPublisher record·Full text, free (Berkeley Haas, author's copy)

A case study of NUMMI, the Toyota subsidiary in Fremont, California, which achieved high efficiency through a highly bureaucratic organisation while remaining unusually flexible at model changeover. Analysing two major model changes, the authors identify four mechanisms: metaroutines — routines for changing other routines; enrichment, with workers and suppliers contributing to nonroutine tasks while working in routine production; switching, separating routine and nonroutine work temporally; and partitioning, letting differentiated subunits work in parallel. Success with all four depended on training, trust and leadership. The book flags the obvious limitation itself — one factory, and an exceptional one.

Used in the book at 2 places
  • Chapter Six The Increment That PaysIn 1999 Paul Adler, Barbara Goldoftas and David Levine published a case study of model changeovers at NUMMI, the Toyota-run plant in California, in Organization Science.
  • Chapter Six The Increment That PaysAdler and colleagues studied one factory, and it was an exceptional one — NUMMI is famous precisely because it was unusual, which is a limitation as well as a recommendation.

Hayward & Hambrick (1997), hubris and acquisition premiums

Publisher record

Hayward, M. L. A. & Hambrick, D. C. (1997). Explaining the Premiums Paid for Large Acquisitions: Evidence of CEO Hubris. Administrative Science Quarterly 42(1): 103–127. DOI: 10.2307/2393810

ProofPublisher record·Repository record (Monash)

A sample of 106 large acquisitions, in which four indicators of CEO hubris were strongly associated with the size of the premium paid: the acquiring company's recent performance, recent media praise for the CEO, a measure of the CEO's self-importance, and a composite of those three. The association strengthened where board vigilance was weaker — a high proportion of inside directors, or the CEO also serving as board chair. Acquiring firms' shareholders lost on average, and the greater the hubris and the premium, the greater the loss. The book's figure of 106 large acquisitions matches the published record exactly.

Used in the book at 2 places
  • Chapter Eight Promoted for the Big BetRichard Roll had proposed the shape of this in 1986 as the hubris hypothesis, and Mathew Hayward and Donald Hambrick tested part of it in 1997 across a hundred and six large acquisitions, finding that signs of hubris in the chief executive predicted how much of a premium the company paid.
  • Chapter Eight Promoted for the Big BetAlmost all of this evidence is about chief executives, and this chapter is about a plant. Jensen, Malmendier and Tate, Roll, Hayward and Hambrick, Chatterjee and Hambrick — every one of them studies the very top of very large listed companies, mostly through acquisitions, in samples weighted toward finance and technology.

Roll (1986), the hubris hypothesis

Full text free

Roll, R. (1986). The Hubris Hypothesis of Corporate Takeovers. The Journal of Business 59(2, Part 1): 197–216. DOI: 10.1086/296325

ProofPublisher record·JSTOR stable URL·Author's copy (UCLA Anderson)

The origin of the hubris explanation for value-destroying acquisitions. Roll argues that hubris on the part of individual decision-makers in bidding firms can explain why bids are made even when a valuation above the current market price represents a positive valuation error — firms infected by hubris simply pay too much. He then reconsiders the existing empirical evidence on mergers and tender offers in that light, arguing it supports hubris as well as it supports the competing explanations of taxes, synergy and inefficient target management. Worth being precise about what this is: a reinterpretation of existing evidence and a proposed explanation, not a new empirical test. Hayward & Hambrick (1997), which the book cites alongside it, is the study that put indicators to it.

Used in the book at 2 places
  • Chapter Eight Promoted for the Big BetRichard Roll had proposed the shape of this in 1986 as the hubris hypothesis, and Mathew Hayward and Donald Hambrick tested part of it in 1997 across a hundred and six large acquisitions, finding that signs of hubris in the chief executive predicted how much of a premium the company paid.
  • Chapter Eight Promoted for the Big BetAlmost all of this evidence is about chief executives, and this chapter is about a plant. Jensen, Malmendier and Tate, Roll, Hayward and Hambrick, Chatterjee and Hambrick — every one of them studies the very top of very large listed companies, mostly through acquisitions, in samples weighted toward finance and technology.

Jensen (1986), free cash flow

Publisher record

Jensen, M. C. (1986). Agency Costs of Free Cash Flow, Corporate Finance, and Takeovers. American Economic Review 76(2): 323–329.

ProofPublisher record

The interests and incentives of managers and shareholders conflict over questions such as the optimal size of the firm and the payment of cash to shareholders, and these conflicts are especially severe in firms with large free cash flows — cash beyond what can be invested profitably in the firm's own opportunities. Absent agency costs, management would return resources that cannot be used productively to shareholders; with agency costs, that may not happen without control mechanisms limiting managerial discretion. The paper's empirical anchor is poor acquisitions by oil companies into industries outside oil and gas: very large cash flows, no valuable investment opportunities in the core business, and diversifying acquisitions as the outlet. That is the shape the book uses — the pressure to deploy capital at scale rather than to spend it well.

Used in the book at 2 places
  • Chapter Eight Promoted for the Big BetMichael Jensen's 1986 paper on free cash flow is where the idea starts that managers over-invest and over-expand for reasons unconnected to the return, and it names the reason plainly: status, power, freedom of action and pay all rise with the size of the thing you run, so growth pays the person deciding whether or not it pays anybody else.
  • Chapter Eight Promoted for the Big BetAlmost all of this evidence is about chief executives, and this chapter is about a plant. Jensen, Malmendier and Tate, Roll, Hayward and Hambrick, Chatterjee and Hambrick — every one of them studies the very top of very large listed companies, mostly through acquisitions, in samples weighted toward finance and technology.

Grijalva et al. (2015), narcissism and leadership

Full text free

Grijalva, E., Harms, P. D., Newman, D. A., Gaddis, B. H. & Fraley, R. C. (2015). Narcissism and Leadership: A Meta-Analytic Review of Linear and Nonlinear Relationships. Personnel Psychology 68(1): 1–47. DOI: 10.1111/peps.12072

ProofPublisher record·Full text, free (author's copy, Nebraska)

A meta-analysis pulling together decades of mixed findings. Its central move is the one the book uses: separating leadership emergence from leadership effectiveness. Narcissism shows a positive relationship with emergence and no relationship with effectiveness. The positive effect on emergence is explained by leader extraversion. The authors also examine nonlinear relationships, which is where the book's 'curve rather than a line' comes from. The book's account matches the paper's own summary of its contributions.

Used in the book at 2 places
  • Chapter Eight Promoted for the Big BetIn 2015 Emily Grijalva and colleagues published a piece in Personnel Psychology pulling together decades of work on narcissism and leadership, and they kept two outcomes separate.
  • Chapter Eight Promoted for the Big BetThe evidence about who gets picked and the evidence about what they then do come from two different literatures. Grijalva and Anderson are psychologists measuring who rises, in samples that are largely not senior executives.

Anderson, Brion, Moore & Kennedy (2012), status-enhancement account

Full text free

Anderson, C., Brion, S., Moore, D. A. & Kennedy, J. A. (2012). A Status-Enhancement Account of Overconfidence. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 103(4): 718–735. DOI: 10.1037/a0029395

ProofPublisher record·Full text, free (UC eScholarship)·Working-paper version (Berkeley IRLE)

Six studies. Studies 1–3 found overconfidence leads to higher social status in both short- and longer-term groups, using naturalistic and experimental designs. Study 4 used a Brunswikian lens analysis and found that overconfidence produces a behavioural signature that makes a person appear competent to others — which is the mechanism the book relies on: the overconfidence is read as ability because it is not recognised as overconfidence. Studies 5 and 6 measured and manipulated the desire for status, finding the status motive itself promotes overconfidence. The book notes the limitation that these samples are largely not senior executives, which is correct.

Used in the book at 2 places
  • Chapter Eight Promoted for the Big BetCameron Anderson and colleagues supplied the reason in 2012, in work on what they called the status-enhancement account of overconfidence: overconfident people gained standing in their groups, and they gained it because the overconfidence was read as ability, and it was read as ability because nobody spotted it as overconfidence.
  • Chapter Eight Promoted for the Big BetThe evidence about who gets picked and the evidence about what they then do come from two different literatures. Grijalva and Anderson are psychologists measuring who rises, in samples that are largely not senior executives.

Grant, *Give and Take* (2013) — trade book

Not research

Grant, A. M. (2013). Give and Take: A Revolutionary Approach to Success. New York: Viking / Penguin.

ProofAuthor's page

A trade book, flagged as such in the text on first use. Grant is an organisational psychologist at Wharton with a substantial peer-reviewed record, but this title is a general-audience synthesis of his own and others' research, not a primary source. Where the book needs the underlying evidence for reciprocity styles or prosocial motivation rather than the popular framing, Grant's journal articles should be cited instead.

Used in the book at 2 places
  • Chapter Eight Promoted for the Big BetAdam Grant adds a wrinkle that matters here, with the same trade-book caveat attached.
  • Chapter Thirteen Does AI Break the Pattern?Grant one Protected Window this month.

Pinder & Harlos (2001), acquiescent silence

Publisher record

Pinder, C. C. & Harlos, K. P. (2001). Employee silence: Quiescence and acquiescence as responses to perceived injustice. Research in Personnel and Human Resources Management 20: 331–369. DOI: 10.1016/S0742-7301(01)20007-3

ProofPublisher record·Emerald chapter page

The paper that splits silence in two, which is the distinction the book depends on. Acquiescent silence is withholding because the employee believes speaking would be futile — resignation and disengagement rather than fear. Quiescent silence is withholding out of fear of negative consequences. The authors develop both forms with their behavioural, affective and cognitive components, and offer a model of why some mistreated employees become silent, how some break their silence, and what organisational contexts produce and reinforce it. Later work confirms the practical weight of the distinction: acquiescent silence has been found to mediate the relationship between justice perceptions and emotional exhaustion, withdrawal and performance more completely than quiescent silence does.

Used in the book at 2 places
  • Chapter Nine The Silence That FollowsPinder and Harlos named the end state: acquiescent silence, distinguished from other kinds by the fact that nothing is being withheld.
  • Chapter Nine The Silence That FollowsPinder and Harlos identified the end state.

Detert & Edmondson (2011), implicit voice theories

Publisher record

Detert, J. R. & Edmondson, A. C. (2011). Implicit Voice Theories: Taken-for-Granted Rules of Self-Censorship at Work. Academy of Management Journal 54(3): 461–488. DOI: 10.5465/amj.2011.61967925

ProofPublisher record

Four studies of implicit voice theories — taken-for-granted beliefs about when and why speaking up at work is risky or inappropriate. Study 1 uses interview data from a large corporation and finds that fine-grained implicit theories underlie reluctance to voice even pro-organisational suggestions, which is the point the book leans on: this is not whistleblowing, it is people not mentioning an improvement. Study 2 tests generalisability; Studies 3 and 4 develop survey measures for five such theories and establish their discriminant and incremental predictive validity for workplace silence. The authors conclude that implicit voice theories are widely held and significantly add to the explanation of workplace silence.

Used in the book at 2 places
  • Chapter Nine The Silence That FollowsAnd Detert and Edmondson explain how the lesson persists without ever being re-taught.
  • Chapter Nine The Silence That FollowsDetert and Edmondson showed the self-editing runs before the conversation starts.

Andrieu et al. (2026), cognitive costs of non-instrumental voice

Publisher record

Andrieu, C. F. A., Bartoletti, R. L., Milhabet, I., Denis-Noël, A. & Steiner, D. D. (2026). From speaking up to shutting down: The cognitive costs of non-instrumental voice. Acta Psychologica 262: 106163. DOI: 10.1016/j.actpsy.2025.106163

ProofPublisher record·Repository record·Author's publication list

Repeated experience of voice that produces no result impairs executive functioning: performance impairments on a cognitive task, lower self-reported motivation and reduced perceived control, with no accompanying rise in perceived distraction or fatigue. The authors read this as repeated informational non-contingency undermining the supervisory system that coordinates executive processes, broadening acquiescent silence from a motivational state to a cognitive risk factor.

Used in the book at 2 places
  • Chapter Nine The Silence That FollowsAndrieu and colleagues exposed participants to repeated instances of voice that produced no result — non-instrumental voice, in the literature's phrase — and then measured not what those people said next, but how well they thought.
  • Chapter Nine The Silence That FollowsAndrieu and colleagues took it a step further under controlled conditions, showing that repeated futility degrades executive functioning itself, sitting on a learned-helplessness foundation as solid as anything in psychology.

Staw (1976), escalation of commitment

Contested

Staw, B. M. (1976). Knee-deep in the big muddy: A study of escalating commitment to a chosen course of action. Organizational Behavior and Human Performance 16(1): 27–44. DOI: 10.1016/0030-5073(76)90005-2

ProofPublisher record·Full text, free (San José State University course PDF)

The origin of escalation of commitment. A simulated business investment decision in which 240 business school students took part in a role-playing exercise, with personal responsibility and decision consequences as the manipulated independent variables. Participants committed the greatest resources to a previously chosen course of action when they were personally responsible for the negative consequences — the responsibility condition is the finding, not merely the persistence. Staw later developed the self-justification account in 'The escalation of commitment to a course of action', Academy of Management Review 6: 577–587 (1981). The book treats this correctly as origin plus field evidence plus open dispute rather than settled fact; see the Martens & Orzen entry for the replication failures. Note the sample: 240 business students in a role-play, which is worth keeping in view when the phenomenon is applied to plant-level capital decisions.

Used in the book at 2 places
  • Chapter Eight Promoted for the Big BetBarry Staw's 1976 study, the one everybody knows by its title about being knee-deep in the Big Muddy, found that people who were personally responsible for a failing course of action put more resources into it than people who had inherited the same failing course from somebody else, with self-justification as the driver.
  • Chapter Eight Promoted for the Big BetStaw is disputed, and the personality measures are stand-ins. The escalation caveat is above.

Brown & Baer (2015), territorial marking

Publisher record

Brown, G. & Baer, M. (2015). Protecting the turf: The effect of territorial marking on others' creativity. Journal of Applied Psychology 100(6): 1785–1797. DOI: 10.1037/a0039254

ProofPublisher record·APA PsycNet record

Two studies on what happens when someone marks a territorial claim over their own ideas and then asks others for feedback. Study 1 finds that control-oriented marking — signalling that an idea is claimed — inhibits invited creativity in the people asked to respond, an effect mediated by their intrinsic motivation. Study 2 finds that independent versus interdependent self-construal moderates the effect on others' intrinsic motivation and creativity. The mechanism is precise and unusually relevant to this book: the damage is not to the owner of the idea but to everyone invited to improve it — asking for help while signalling ownership suppresses the help. Both authors contributed equally.

Used in the book at 2 places
  • Chapter Four The GateIn 2015 Graham Brown and Markus Baer published work in the Journal of Applied Psychology with a title that could serve as a subtitle for this whole chapter, "Protecting the Turf: The Effect of Territorial Marking on Others' Creativity." They showed experimentally that when people mark their territory it measurably suppresses the creativity of everyone else around it.
  • Chapter Ten The Revelation ThresholdA workgroup. Brown and Baer's territorial marking, from Chapter 4, where the act of one party staking a claim measurably suppressed the creativity of everyone else in the room.

Mueller, Melwani & Goncalo (2012), bias against creativity

Full text free

Mueller, J. S., Melwani, S. & Goncalo, J. A. (2012). The Bias Against Creativity: Why People Desire but Reject Creative Ideas. Psychological Science 23(1): 13–17. DOI: 10.1177/0956797611421018

ProofPublisher record·Full text, free (author's copy)·Cornell eCommons record

People reject creative ideas even while stating creativity as a goal. The authors propose a bias against creativity that is not necessarily overt and is activated when people are motivated to reduce uncertainty. Two experiments manipulated uncertainty by different methods, including an uncertainty-reduction prime; both demonstrated a negative bias against creativity relative to practicality under uncertainty, and the bias interfered with participants' ability to recognise a creative idea. That last point is the one the book uses: the rejection is not a considered judgement about a recognised creative idea, it is a failure to see it as one.

Used in the book at 2 places
  • Chapter Four The GateIn 2012 Jennifer Mueller and colleagues ran a study with a title that gives the game away, "The Bias Against Creativity." What they found is that people hold an implicit bias against creative ideas, a genuine and measurable aversion, that surfaces precisely when they are feeling uncertain.
  • Chapter Ten The Revelation ThresholdA decision meeting. Mueller's bias against creativity, also from Chapter 4, where the evaluator's own uncertainty degraded the reception of exactly the ideas most worth having, and did it below the level at which the evaluator could feel it happening.

Bateman (2005) & McLean et al. (2017), CI decay

Publisher record

Bateman, N. A. (2005). Sustainability: the elusive element of process improvement. International Journal of Operations & Production Management 25(3): 261–276. ISSN 0144-3577 — with McLean, R. & Antony, J. (2014). Why continuous improvement initiatives fail in manufacturing environments? A systematic review of the evidence. International Journal of Productivity and Performance Management 63(3): 370–376

ProofBateman publication list (author's institution)·McLean & Antony record

Bateman documents sustainability as the missing element of process improvement — initiatives that succeed initially and then decay. McLean and Antony's systematic review groups the causes of continuous-improvement failure in manufacturing under eight core themes — motives and expectations, organisational culture and environment, management leadership, implementation approach, training, project management, employee involvement levels, and feedback and results — organised into a three-stage model. Neither source is used in the book to support a failure percentage, which is correct: figures like the widely repeated 75 per cent change-programme failure rate circulate without a traceable origin and are exactly what the book's no-folklore-numbers discipline excludes.

Used in the book at 2 places
  • Chapter Seven The Graveyard of Good ProgramsNicola Bateman's 2005 paper in the International Journal of Operations & Production Management is the one whose title says it.
  • Chapter Seven The Graveyard of Good ProgramsBut the careful documentation is Bateman and McLean, not Google, and if you take one citation out of this chapter take one of those.

Bettis, Bradley & Hamel (1992), outsourcing and industrial decline

Publisher record

Bettis, R. A., Bradley, S. P. & Hamel, G. (1992). Outsourcing and industrial decline. Academy of Management Executive 6(1): 7–22. DOI: 10.5465/ame.1992.4274298

ProofPublisher record·HBS faculty record

The argument the book's Chapter 3 chain begins from, and the wording is worth having exactly: a whole series of incremental outsourcing decisions, taken individually, may each make economic sense, but collectively they may represent the surrender of the business's capability to compete. That is a claim about incrementalism rather than about outsourcing as such — which is why it belongs in this book specifically. The authors are explicit that outsourcing properly understood and managed as part of strategy can aid competitiveness; the paper is about improper use. Based on the authors' research with firms in North America, Europe and Asia. Note that some sources give the page range as 7–16 rather than 7–22; the Academy of Management record gives 7–22. Note also that this is a practitioner-facing journal — Academy of Management Executive, an executive-overview format — rather than a peer-reviewed empirical study, and should be characterised as an argument rather than as evidence.

Used in the book at 2 places
  • Chapter Three Why NowRichard Bettis, Stephen Bradley and Gary Hamel published "Outsourcing and Industrial Decline" in the Academy of Management Executive.
  • Chapter Three Why NowThe hollowing-out evidence is narrow where the claim is wide. Kotabe and Mol's curve comes from manufacturing businesses, Weigelt's result from banks adopting the internet, and Bettis, Bradley and Hamel's warning was an argument made in 1992 rather than a measurement taken since.

Kotabe & Mol, outsourcing inverted U

Full text free

Kotabe, M. & Mol, M. J. (2009). Outsourcing and financial performance: A negative curvilinear effect. Journal of Purchasing & Supply Management 15(4): 205–213. DOI: 10.1016/j.pursup.2009.04.001 — with Kotabe, M., Mol, M. J. & Murray, J. Y. (2008), Outsourcing, performance, and the role of e-commerce: A dynamic perspective, Industrial Marketing Management 37(1): 37–45, DOI: 10.1016/j.indmarman.2007.06.011

ProofPublisher record (2009)·Full text, free (Warwick WRAP)·Publisher record (2008)·Full text, free (Warwick WRAP)

There is an optimal degree of outsourcing, at which firms outsource some activities and integrate others, and deviations from it lower performance in a negatively curvilinear fashion. The 2009 paper finds empirical support using 1995 and 1998 data on manufacturing businesses in the Netherlands, and shows the curve steepens under high uncertainty. The 2008 paper sets out the inverted-U argument. A later extension applies the same shape to market share across a panel of over 19,000 observations: Kotabe, M., Mol, M. J., Murray, J. Y. & Parente, R. (2012), Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science 40(2): 329–346. One nuance worth keeping in mind: the curve is symmetric in the original — too little outsourcing also costs performance — whereas the book emphasises the right-hand side. The book does describe it as an inverted U and says there is a healthy amount, so this is a matter of emphasis rather than error.

Used in the book at 2 places
  • Chapter Three Why NowMasaaki Kotabe and Michael Mol studied manufacturing businesses and found the relationship is not a straight line at all but a curve with a top to it.
  • Chapter Three Why NowThe hollowing-out evidence is narrow where the claim is wide. Kotabe and Mol's curve comes from manufacturing businesses, Weigelt's result from banks adopting the internet, and Bettis, Bradley and Hamel's warning was an argument made in 1992 rather than a measurement taken since.

Weigelt (2009), external sourcing and capability depletion

Publisher record

Weigelt, C. (2009). The impact of outsourcing new technologies on integrative capabilities and performance. Strategic Management Journal 30(6): 595–616. DOI: 10.1002/smj.760

ProofPublisher record

Outsourcing gives a firm access to a new technology but does not guarantee that it can then integrate that technology with its existing business processes and leverage it in the market. Building on the resource-based and knowledge-based views, the paper studies the effect of outsourcing on subsequent market performance and on integrative capabilities — a firm's capacity to use and assimilate a new technology with its processes and build on it. The empirical setting is banks' outsourcing strategies for internet adoption, using survey and archival data. The performance consequences of outsourcing are found to be negative, and outsourcing is less detrimental for firms with experience in a prior related technology. Note also a separate Weigelt SMJ paper often confused with this one: Weigelt, C. (2012), 'Performance implications of outsourcing for technological innovations', SMJ, DOI 10.1002/smj.951. Resolved 2026-09-08: the earlier working note asked whether the book's comparative claim — that heavier external sourcing raises rather than lowers the need for internal capability — was supported, or whether it should be softened to the abstract's weaker 'access does not guarantee integration'. Neither was necessary. The comparative is carried by the paper's own moderator: outsourcing is less detrimental where prior related capability exists, which is an interaction, not the weaker main claim. Chapter Three now rests the passage on that moderator rather than on an inference from the integrative-capabilities construct, and names the banking setting inline, since Chapter Three has no 'Where the evidence stops' section to carry it.

Used in the book at 2 places
  • Chapter Three Why NowThe most pointed result for our purposes is Carmen Weigelt's, in the Strategic Management Journal.
  • Chapter Three Why NowThe hollowing-out evidence is narrow where the claim is wide. Kotabe and Mol's curve comes from manufacturing businesses, Weigelt's result from banks adopting the internet, and Bettis, Bradley and Hamel's warning was an argument made in 1992 rather than a measurement taken since.

Liu, Yuan & Jiang (2025), algorithmic management and knowledge hiding

Publisher record

Liu, P., Yuan, L. & Jiang, Z. (2025). The dark side of algorithmic management: investigating how and when algorithmic management relates to employee knowledge hiding? Journal of Knowledge Management 29(2): 342. DOI: 10.1108/JKM-04-2024-0507

ProofPublisher record·Emerald listing

Builds on psychological ownership theory to test how algorithmic management affects employee knowledge hiding, validating the model through a situational experiment and a multi-wave field study with full-time employees in organisations that had implemented algorithmic management, analysed by analysis of variance, regression and path analysis. The design the book describes — situational experiment plus multi-wave field study — matches the published record. Paywalled; abstract open.

Used in the book at 2 places
  • Chapter Eleven Stop Hunting the FleetLiu, Yuan and Jiang published work in 2025, combining a situational experiment with a multi-wave field study, finding that algorithmic management increases knowledge hiding — that people managed more by algorithm withhold more from the people around them.
  • Chapter Eleven Stop Hunting the FleetThe algorithmic-management evidence is adjacent, not identical. Liu and colleagues studied knowledge hiding — withholding knowledge from coworkers — which is a cousin of concealing a project from management rather than the same behaviour.

Masoudnia & Szwejczewski (2012), bootlegging in R&D

Publisher record

Masoudnia, Y. & Szwejczewski, M. (2012). Bootlegging in the R&D Departments of High-Technology Firms. Research-Technology Management 55(5): 35–42. DOI: 10.5437/08956308X5505070

ProofPublisher record·Taylor & Francis listing

Based on 55 in-depth interviews with bootleggers working in the R&D departments of 34 high-technology companies, examining why employees hide innovative activity from the rest of the organisation and especially from senior management. The reported primary motivation was the individual's desire to do work that would benefit the organisation — which is the finding the book uses. Sample sizes in the book (55 bootleggers, 34 firms) match the published record exactly.

Used in the book at 2 places
  • Chapter One The Choice, and the FleetWhen Masoudnia and Szwejczewski interviewed 55 bootleggers across 34 high-technology firms, the dominant motivation they found was not personal gain at all.
  • Chapter One The Choice, and the FleetMasoudnia and Szwejczewski interviewed fifty-five bootleggers in thirty-four firms and asked them why they did it.

Miller & Wedell-Wedellsborg, *Innovation as Usual* — trade book

Not research

Miller, P. & Wedell-Wedellsborg, T. (2013). Innovation as Usual: How to Help Your People Bring Great Ideas to Life. Boston: Harvard Business Review Press.

ProofPublisher record

A trade book, flagged as such in the text on first use. It argues that innovation is better treated as an everyday behaviour to be built into ordinary working practice than as a matter of set-piece brainstorming or dedicated innovation programmes — which is the claim this book borrows. It is a practitioner argument, not a study, and carries no original evidence. Where the same chapter needs documented evidence of continuous-improvement programmes decaying, Bateman (2005) and McLean & Antony (2014) are the sources to lean on, and the book already says so.

Used in the book at 2 places
  • Chapter Ten The Revelation ThresholdMiller and Wedell-Wedellsborg's Innovation as Usual, and I will flag that as a trade book rather than a study, argues for stealth in the early stages on the grounds that a premature no is close to irreversible — once a proposal has been declined, everything subsequently learned about it gets read through the decline, and the people who declined it have a position to defend.
  • Chapter Ten The Revelation ThresholdMiller and Wedell-Wedellsborg is a trade book, said once already and repeated because it is the kind of source that gets promoted to a study by a helpful reader.

Kotter (2012/2014), dual operating system

Not research

Kotter, J. P. (2012). Accelerate! Harvard Business Review, 90(11), 44–58. Expanded as Kotter, J. P. (2014). Accelerate: Building Strategic Agility for a Faster-Moving World. Boston: Harvard Business Review Press.

ProofHBR article

A practitioner framework rather than an empirical result, and flagged as such in the text. Kotter proposes a second, network-like operating system running alongside the management hierarchy — a volunteer coalition with a guiding structure and a strategic change agenda. Chapter Twelve borrows the phrase for the shape of the problem and departs from Kotter on the remedy: it proposes wiring rules applied to the existing hierarchy rather than a second organisation, and says so explicitly in its caveats section. No controlled test of the framework was found in either direction.

Used in the book at 1 place
  • Chapter Twelve The Dual Operating SystemThe title is Kotter's and the argument is not. John Kotter named the dual operating system in Harvard Business Review in 2012 and expanded it the following year in Accelerate, and anybody who has read him will recognise the phrase on this chapter's first page.

Cyert & March (1963), organisational slack

Publisher record

Cyert, R. M. & March, J. G. (1963). A Behavioral Theory of the Firm. Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice-Hall. ISBN 0-631-17451-6

ProofEncyclopedia entry (SAGE)·Sixtieth-anniversary review

The origin of organisational slack, and of the behavioural theory of the firm generally. Written at Carnegie Mellon, where March, a political scientist, had joined Cyert, an economist. It rejects the two assumptions the prior theory of the firm rested on — profit maximisation and perfect knowledge — and treats larger firms as coalitions of individuals and groups with differing goals, run by boundedly rational managers who cannot fully predict consequences or may not have fully formed preferences. Its four relational concepts are quasi-resolution of conflict, uncertainty avoidance, problemistic search and organisational learning. Note the lineage this book depends on: Cyert and March is the foundation both for Ocasio's attention-based view and for March (1991) on exploration and exploitation, so three of this book's theoretical anchors descend from the same 1963 source. Worth stating once rather than presenting them as independent lines of support.

Used in the book at 1 place
  • Chapter Seven The Graveyard of Good ProgramsCyert and March called it organisational slack in 1963: resources beyond what current operations strictly require.

Brunell et al. (2008), narcissism and leader emergence

Full text free

Brunell, A. B., Gentry, W. A., Campbell, W. K., Hoffman, B. J., Kuhnert, K. W. & DeMarree, K. G. (2008). Leader Emergence: The Case of the Narcissistic Leader. Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin 34(12): 1663–1676. DOI: 10.1177/0146167208324101

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Three studies in which participants completed personality questionnaires and then took part in four-person leaderless group discussions. All three found a link between narcissism and leader emergence, with the power dimension of narcissism predicting emergence while controlling for sex, self-esteem and the Big Five. Study 3 found an association between narcissism and expert ratings of leader emergence in a group of executives — which is the basis for the book's line about high scorers rising even where the observers were trained to assess leadership.

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  • Chapter Eight Promoted for the Big BetBrunell and colleagues in 2008 ran the emergence question in group settings and found the high scorers rising to the top even where the people watching had been trained to assess leadership.

Chamorro-Premuzic (2019) — trade book

Not research

Chamorro-Premuzic, T. (2019). Why Do So Many Incompetent Men Become Leaders? (And How to Fix It). Boston: Harvard Business Review Press. ISBN 9781633696327

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A trade book, flagged as such in the text on first use. It synthesises existing leadership research rather than reporting new findings, and the core argument is the one this book borrows: organisations equate leadership potential with traits such as overconfidence and narcissism that help people get selected for a role but backfire once they hold it. That maps onto the emergence/effectiveness split established empirically by Grijalva et al. (2015), which is the citation to lean on where evidence is needed. The book grew out of a 2013 Harvard Business Review article of the same title, which is freely available and states the confidence-mistaken-for-competence thesis directly. The author is a business psychologist at UCL and Columbia. Note that the argument is framed substantially around gender and the under-representation of women in leadership; if this book cites it only for the confidence/competence point, that is a legitimate narrowing but should not be mistaken for the work's main thrust.

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  • Chapter Eight Promoted for the Big BetTomas Chamorro-Premuzic assembled all of this for a general audience in 2019, and I will flag that book as what it is, a trade book drawing on other people's data rather than a study, because his central line is still the cleanest statement of the mechanism I know: confidence gets used as a stand-in for competence, and the two have very little to do with each other.

Martens & Orzen (2021), failed replication of Staw

Contested

Martens, N. & Orzen, H. (2021). Escalating commitment to a failing course of action — A re-examination. European Economic Review 137: 103811.

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A laboratory re-examination of Staw (1976). Martens and Orzen do not reproduce the original result: no increase in average investment following negative feedback. A second, independent failed replication reaches a similar conclusion — 'Escalation of commitment is independent of numeracy and cognitive reflection', DOI 10.18559/ebr.2021.2.2. The book treats escalation of commitment as origin plus field evidence plus open dispute, never as settled.

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  • Chapter Eight Promoted for the Big BetMartens and Orzen went back to it experimentally in 2021 and did not reproduce it — no increase in spending after bad news — and related work has reported the opposite effect, where a larger initial commitment made carrying on less likely.

Katz & Allen (1982), Not Invented Here

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Katz, R. & Allen, T. J. (1982). Investigating the Not Invented Here (NIH) syndrome: A look at the performance, tenure, and communication patterns of 50 R&D project groups. R&D Management 12(1): 7–20. DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-9310.1982.tb00478.x

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The paper that gave Not Invented Here an empirical basis, defining it as the tendency of a project group of stable composition to believe it holds a monopoly of knowledge in its field, and therefore to reject outside ideas to the detriment of its own performance. Carried out in a large laboratory across 50 R&D project groups. Performance rises to about 1.5 years of mean team tenure, holds steady for a period, and by five years has declined noticeably — accounted for by a marked fall in communication both among group members and between them and critical external information sources. The book's figure of fifty R&D project groups matches exactly. The mechanism is worth noting for this book's purposes: NIH here is a function of tenure and communication decay, not of individual arrogance.

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  • Chapter Four The GateRalph Katz and Thomas Allen documented it properly back in 1982, studying fifty R&D project groups.

Antons & Piller (2015), opening the NIH black box

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Antons, D. & Piller, F. T. (2015). Opening the Black Box of Not Invented Here: Attitudes, Decision Biases, and Behavioral Consequences. Academy of Management Perspectives 29(2): 193–217. DOI: 10.5465/amp.2013.0091

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A framework paper unpacking Not Invented Here into two components: the source of the knowledge — distinguishing organisational, contextual (disciplinary) and spatial (geographical) externality — and the valuation error, either underestimating the knowledge's value or overestimating the cost of obtaining it. The authors set out that NIH can be diagnosed by testing the rationale used to disqualify an idea, and identify ego-defensive and utilitarian mechanisms behind it. A later empirical paper from the same group tests countermeasures across 565 global R&D projects: Hannen, J., Antons, D., Piller, F., Salge, T. O., Coltman, T. & Devinney, T. M. (2019), 'Containing the Not-Invented-Here Syndrome in external knowledge absorption and open innovation', Research Policy 48(9) — useful if the book ever wants evidence rather than framework here.

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  • Chapter Four The GateLater work by Dirk Antons and Frank Piller framed it precisely: Not Invented Here is best understood as an attitude-based bias, a psychological mechanism that leads people to reject external knowledge in an irrational, economically suboptimal way, regardless of how good the knowledge actually is.

Boudreau, Guinan, Lakhani & Riedl (2016), novelty penalised

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Boudreau, K. J., Guinan, E. C., Lakhani, K. R. & Riedl, C. (2016). Looking Across and Looking Beyond the Knowledge Frontier: Intellectual Distance, Novelty, and Resource Allocation in Science. Management Science 62(10): 2765–2783. DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.2015.2285

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The authors designed and ran a grant proposal process at a leading research university, randomising the assignment of evaluators to proposals to generate 2,130 evaluator–proposal pairs. Evaluators systematically gave lower scores both to proposals close to their own areas of expertise and to proposals that were highly novel.

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  • Chapter Four The GateKevin Boudreau, Eva Guinan, Karim Lakhani and Christoph Riedl ran a grant proposal process at a research university and randomised which evaluators saw which proposals, generating over two thousand evaluator–proposal pairs.

Nohria & Gulati (1996), slack and innovation

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Nohria, N. & Gulati, R. (1996). Is Slack Good or Bad for Innovation? Academy of Management Journal 39(5): 1245–1264. DOI: 10.5465/256998

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An inverse U-shaped relationship between slack and innovation: both too much and too little slack are detrimental. The mechanism the authors propose is the one that makes the shape honest rather than convenient — slack fosters greater experimentation but simultaneously diminishes discipline over innovative projects, and the two pull against each other. Tested on comprehensive worldwide data covering 264 functional departments of two multinational corporations. The book's description, 'found an inverted U, which is the honest shape', is accurate. A follow-up paper puts the question directly: Nohria, N. & Gulati, R. (1997), 'What is the optimum amount of organizational slack?', European Management Journal 15(6): 603–611. Note also the lineage — organisational slack as a concept originates with Cyert & March (1963), which the book cites separately.

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  • Chapter Seven The Graveyard of Good ProgramsNohria and Gulati studied the relationship between slack and innovation and found an inverted U, which is the honest shape.

Junni et al. (2013), ambidexterity meta-analysis

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Junni, P., Sarala, R. M., Taras, V. & Tarba, S. Y. (2013). Organizational Ambidexterity and Performance: A Meta-Analysis. Academy of Management Perspectives 27(4): 299–312. DOI: 10.5465/amp.2012.0015

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A meta-analysis pooling prior studies of organizational ambidexterity and performance to reconcile mixed results. The book's figure of 66 studies matches the published record. The headline finding is as the book states it: positive and significant ambidexterity–performance relationships.

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  • Chapter Twelve The Dual Operating SystemAmbidexterity is supported and it is not settled. The idea that an organisation can run exploration and exploitation at once, and be better off for it, has meta-analytic support: Junni and colleagues pooled sixty-six studies in 2013 and found a positive and significant relationship with firm performance.

Frazier et al. (2017), psychological safety meta-analysis

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Frazier, M. L., Fainshmidt, S., Klinger, R. L., Pezeshkan, A. & Vracheva, V. (2017). Psychological Safety: A Meta-Analytic Review and Extension. Personnel Psychology 70(1): 113–165. DOI: 10.1111/peps.12183

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Draws on 136 independent samples representing over 22,000 individuals and nearly 5,000 groups, to meta-analyse the antecedents and outcomes of psychological safety. The book's figures — 136 samples, more than 22,000 individuals — match the published abstract exactly. The paper compares effect sizes across antecedents to establish which matter most, and tests whether psychological safety predicts task performance and organisational citizenship behaviours beyond related constructs such as positive leader relations and work engagement. Related summaries of the findings report psychological safety strongly associated with work engagement, job satisfaction and commitment, and moderately associated with task performance and citizenship behaviours — a gradient consistent with the book's statement that the sharing and learning links are the stronger ones.

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  • Chapter Twelve The Dual Operating SystemPsychological safety is the robust part, and its own author supplies the caveat. Frazier and colleagues pooled a hundred and thirty-six samples and more than twenty-two thousand individuals and found psychological safety related to information sharing, learning behaviour and performance, with the sharing and learning links strongest.

Dixit & Pindyck (1994), investment under uncertainty

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Dixit, A. K. & Pindyck, R. S. (1994). Investment Under Uncertainty. Princeton: Princeton University Press. ISBN 9780691034102

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The standard formal treatment of irreversible investment under uncertainty, and the source of the real-options logic the book uses: when an investment cannot be undone and the future is uncertain, the option to wait has value, which raises the threshold a project must clear before it is worth committing to now rather than later. This is a book rather than a journal article — a scholarly monograph, not a trade book, so it does not fall under the book's trade-source flagging rule, but it is theory rather than empirical evidence and should be characterised that way. The book's sentence, that Dixit and Pindyck 'worked out the formal consequences', describes it correctly.

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  • Chapter Five The Big FactoryIn the late 1980s and early 1990s, Avinash Dixit and Robert Pindyck worked out the formal consequences of investing under uncertainty when you cannot take the investment back.

Doms & Dunne (1998), capital adjustment patterns

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Doms, M. E. & Dunne, T. (1998). Capital Adjustment Patterns in Manufacturing Plants. Review of Economic Dynamics 1(2): 409–429. DOI: 10.1006/redy.1998.0011 — earlier as Working Paper 94-11, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau (1994)

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Takes the theoretical result that investment may occur in lumpy episodes and asks how lumpy investment actually is, using US Census plant-level manufacturing data. The finding the book uses: roughly 50 per cent of an average plant's cumulative investment over a 15-year period is concentrated in two to three contiguous years. The paper also reports a strong inverse relationship between plant size and lumpiness — smaller plants have considerably larger spikes — and that plants undergoing ownership changes or industry switches show somewhat larger spikes.

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  • Chapter Five The Big FactoryDoms and Dunne, studying thousands of US plants, found that around half of a plant's investment over a fifteen-year period was compressed into just two or three consecutive years, with the rest of the time spent in relative stillness.

Handley (2012), capability loss

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Handley, S. M. (2012). The perilous effects of capability loss on outsourcing management and performance. Journal of Operations Management 30(1–2): 152–165. DOI: 10.1016/j.jom.2011.10.003

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Outsourcing engagements pursued for aggressive cost savings often involve disposing of organisational resources, which can produce significant operational capability loss in the outsourcing firm. The paper investigates the direct effect of that capability loss on outsourcing performance and on the firm's ability to manage the supplier relationship — which is the loop the book describes: lose competence, manage the relationship worse, get worse outcomes. Author affiliation is Rutgers Business School.

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  • Chapter Three Why NowSean Handley documented what follows as the perilous effects of capability loss: firms that lose internal competence manage their outsourcing relationships worse, which produces worse outcomes, which typically produces more outsourcing.

Silic & Back (2014), shadow IT

Publisher record

Silic, M. & Back, A. (2014). Shadow IT — A view from behind the curtain. Computers & Security 45: 274–283. DOI: 10.1016/j.cose.2014.06.007

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Defines shadow IT as all hardware, software or other solutions used by employees inside the organisational ecosystem that have never received formal IT department approval. The study analyses an organisation's shadow IT software database directly, using a triangulation approach — which is why it is worth citing over the many survey-based treatments: it looks at what was actually installed rather than what people reported. The authors emphasise shadow IT's dual nature, capable of being both efficient in place of formal systems and a source of security exposure. The same group has continued the line into shadow AI: Silic, M. (2025), 'From Shadow IT to Shadow AI — Threats, Risks and Opportunities for Organizations', Strategic Change, DOI 10.1002/jsc.2682 — directly relevant to this book's argument and worth considering as an addition.

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  • Chapter Two Battle-TestedSilic and Back, studying it, described people bypassing sanctioned systems not out of malice but to close the gap between rigid corporate tooling and what the actual work demanded.